NATO's deputy supreme allied commander for Europe, Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer, warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is becoming "increasingly cavalier, dangerous and risk accepting" as the war in Ukraine continues. Speaking to The Associated Press at a security conference in Tallinn, Estonia, Stringer noted that Moscow is seeking to divide Western allies and cautioned NATO members against overreacting to provocations.
The warning comes amid a series of covert disruptions and drone incursions in Europe, which some leaders describe as deliberate tests of NATO's collective defense pact. While European officials express concern over sabotage and espionage, US officials have downplayed the likelihood of intentional direct attacks, attributing some incidents to electronic warfare and accidental drift.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative voices and US officials advocate for a measured response, warning against escalating tensions unnecessarily. US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker dismissed concerns that Russia is testing the transatlantic alliance, stating that "Putin does not want a conflict with NATO." Whitaker characterized drone incursions into countries like Romania or Poland as largely the result of electronic warfare and unintentional drift, though he noted that sabotage remains concerning. He warned against "overreacting," arguing that such a response is "exactly what I think our adversaries would want or hope for."
British defense officials, speaking anonymously, indicated that the UK assessment is that Putin is not seeking direct confrontation with NATO. Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics also urged caution, noting that there is no observed buildup of Russian forces near borders and that the perspective of a direct military attack is "not correct." These officials suggest that while hybrid activities are troubling, a conventional invasion is improbable given Russia's engagement in Ukraine and the threat of NATO retaliation.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive voices and European allies emphasize the severity of the threat posed by Russian hybrid warfare and the necessity of robust support for Ukraine. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal described Putin as a "rat in the corner," arguing that the escalation of covert attacks in Europe is a direct consequence of Western support for Kyiv. Michal stated that the high level of malign activity is "here to stay" until Putin changes his military goals and asserted that the best way to deter him is to "back Ukraine."
French President Emmanuel Macron has aligned with this view, agreeing with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk that Russia might target NATO nations with deliberate drone or missile strikes while claiming they were accidental. Macron has directed his government to prepare plans to protect critical infrastructure against potential drone and cyberattacks. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte reinforced this stance, stating that Putin "knows that the United States and Europe are totally intertwined" and that the alliance's reaction to "anything silly" would be tough.
What the Numbers Show
An Associated Press interactive map tracking covert Russian campaigns in Europe shows a significant escalation in incidents. The data indicates a rise from 59 incidents in March 2025 to more than 210 incidents recently, ranging from vandalism, propaganda, and influence operations to arson, sabotage, and cyberattacks. Specific recent events include a plot at Leipzig airport involving a drone with explosives near a fuel-laden Ukrainian plane and a disrupted plot to sabotage a drone factory outside London.
On the battlefield, Russian gains in Ukraine have been slow and costly, with more than half a million dead, according to Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, chief of the UK's defense staff. Conversely, Ukrainian deep-strike campaigns have targeted Russia's energy industry, causing fuel shortages in 80 of 83 Russian regions. Despite these pressures, there is no indication that Putin is backing away from his goals in Ukraine, with Baltic leaders predicting increased attacks on infrastructure as winter approaches.
The Bottom Line
The divergence in assessments between NATO's European command and US diplomatic leadership highlights the complexity of responding to hybrid warfare. Stringer and Michal suggest that the line between accidental and deliberate incidents is "quite a fine one," making attribution difficult and allowing Moscow to escalate without triggering Article 5. However, both agree that the increase in covert attacks is not due to NATO's failure to stop them, but rather a strategy by Putin to break Western support for Kyiv.
Looking ahead, Baltic leaders argue that Moscow will dig in deeper as winter approaches, with attacks on infrastructure likely to increase over the next several months. Diplomatic progress is not expected until spring. The primary challenge for NATO remains balancing the need for vigilance against sabotage with the risk of provoking a larger conflict, a dynamic Putin reportedly seeks to exploit. Leaders like Rinkevics maintain that a conventional attack remains unlikely, but the status quo of high-level malign activity is expected to persist.