U.S. military contractors need at least three years to replenish stockpiles of three key weapons systems used heavily in the Iran war, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), adding to concerns that American forces would have limited firepower in any future conflict with China.
The weapons systems are Tomahawk cruise missiles, used to strike targets deep inside enemy territory, and Patriot and THAAD interceptors that defend against incoming missiles and drones. CSIS said the depleted inventories have created a window of vulnerability for a potential Western Pacific conflict, and the time needed to rebuild those inventories has become a major concern.
China has a stated goal of ensuring its military is capable of taking Taiwan by force if necessary by 2027, which experts see as more aspirational than a hard deadline. Chinese President Xi Jinping warned this month that mishandling relations with the self-governing island could lead to open conflict between the U.S. and China.
What the Left Is Saying
Senate Democrats have seized on munitions inventory concerns as evidence against the Iran war, which President Donald Trump launched without congressional approval. The depleted stockpiles represent a damning metric for critics who argue the administration moved too quickly to use advanced weaponry without sufficient preparation for sustained conflict.
Virginia Burger, a senior defense policy analyst at the Project On Government Government Oversight watchdog group and a former Marine officer, said Pentagon officials likely understood stockpile realities before the Iran strikes. "If we go to this fight, even in the most conservative estimates, we are drawing down our stockpiles to a critical level," Burger said during recent congressional hearings where munitions supply became a recurring theme.
Some Democrats have argued that the current replenishment challenge underscores the need for more robust congressional oversight of military spending and weapons usage. They contend that future deployments of advanced systems should require greater deliberation about long-term industrial base implications.
What the Right Is Saying
Trump administration officials have insisted the U.S. remains capable of fighting any war while pushing defense contractors to accelerate munitions production. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers last month that military spending under Trump will help manufacturers double or even triple their capacities.
Some Republicans argue the stockpile problem stems from the Biden administration's decision to send Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine after Russia invaded in 2022, depleting inventories before the Iran conflict. This position places responsibility for current shortfalls on prior Democratic leadership rather than current operations.
Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement that the military "has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President's choosing." During Trump's Cabinet meeting Wednesday, Hegseth lauded the president's efforts to expand defense manufacturing, noting private contractors are investing in new plants and production lines "so that we're getting weapons faster than ever."
What the Numbers Show
CSIS estimates show the U.S. fired more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles at Iran during the conflict. Fewer than 200 Tomahawks were produced annually because of small orders in past years, though manufacturer Raytheon has set a goal of ramping up capacity to more than 1,000 per year.
Full replenishment of prewar Tomahawk inventory could take until late 2030 under current production trajectories. Replacing approximately 290 THAAD interceptors used against Iranian drones and missiles is estimated to conclude by the end of 2029. Replenishing more than 1,000 Patriot interceptors should wrap up around mid-2029.
The CSIS analysis factors in the Trump administration's $1.5 trillion defense budget proposal for fiscal year 2027, which significantly accelerates spending on high-end munitions that began under the prior administration. Lockheed Martin is investing $9 billion through 2030 to boost production, while Raytheon parent company RTX has committed several billion dollars to expand facilities in Alabama and Arizona.
Patriot deliveries present a particular dilemma because of competing demands: the need to replenish U.S. inventories, help Ukraine defend against Russian missile attacks, and meet commitments to 17 other countries that use the interceptor system, according to CSIS.
The Bottom Line
CSIS Senior Adviser Mark Cancian, who co-authored the study with research associate Chris H. Park, said the roots of the predicament trace to post-Cold War defense planning assumptions that future wars would be short and regional, requiring relatively few high-end weapons. Military contractors responded by maintaining small manufacturing footprints.
"The problem today isn't money; it's time," the CSIS report stated, adding that inventory restoration will take several years before reaching levels war planners desire. Cancian noted that part of the challenge involves bringing up to speed a complicated web of supply chains and subcontractors producing novel components.
Looking ahead, CSIS said a potential conflict with China is "not all bleak" given recent U.S. military demonstrations against Iran, Venezuela, and Houthi rebels in Yemen. The think tank noted China has no recent combat experience and performed poorly in its last major war, against Vietnam in 1979. That experience gap may preserve deterrence until munitions inventories are restored, analysts said.